BharatPremi
03-13 10:51 AM
Yes, I guess the slowdown will happen when it hits the 2005 mark when PERM was introducted and a lot of EB3 were converted into EB2
Yep, that's "bull period". But assuming AOS bulletin mirrors CP bulletin, it looks like USCIS has decided to play with EB2-India. According to its own process, if USCIS might be working then this bulletin was not expected. 2 things I can think of. (1)EB3-ROW (From which numbers flow to EB2 -ROW then Eb2-countries) is confirmed empty and thus EB2-ROW is empty too (2) Somehow abrupt decision. If it is no:1 then it is really good news. But if it 2 then it will be bad for EB3-India as EB3-India is the MOST suffered lot during 2002-8. and Per country limit will make it more suffered with this illegitimate forward movement of EB2-India. Let's wait for AOS bulletin.
Yep, that's "bull period". But assuming AOS bulletin mirrors CP bulletin, it looks like USCIS has decided to play with EB2-India. According to its own process, if USCIS might be working then this bulletin was not expected. 2 things I can think of. (1)EB3-ROW (From which numbers flow to EB2 -ROW then Eb2-countries) is confirmed empty and thus EB2-ROW is empty too (2) Somehow abrupt decision. If it is no:1 then it is really good news. But if it 2 then it will be bad for EB3-India as EB3-India is the MOST suffered lot during 2002-8. and Per country limit will make it more suffered with this illegitimate forward movement of EB2-India. Let's wait for AOS bulletin.
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RaviG
02-01 05:06 PM
Aren't these pretty complex questions for them.
Why can't we ask a simple question like this?
1. Given the green card woes lot of US eductated scientists and technical talent are leaving US for their home country. This is helping the home country and increasing outsourcing market. What are you going to do about it? Are you going to do any thing to keep them here?
Should I ask this question? Any inputs.
Why can't we ask a simple question like this?
1. Given the green card woes lot of US eductated scientists and technical talent are leaving US for their home country. This is helping the home country and increasing outsourcing market. What are you going to do about it? Are you going to do any thing to keep them here?
Should I ask this question? Any inputs.
javadeveloper
11-25 12:04 AM
There are both advantages and disadvantages, but if you haven't consumed full 6 years of H1B, going on EAD has certain advantages.
Even my company recommends to use EAD to stop utilizing H1B time.As per http://immigration-information.com/forums/showpost.php?p=18946&postcount=28 it's definitely better to switch to EAD.I used 4.5 years of H1B and switched to EAD.
Even my company recommends to use EAD to stop utilizing H1B time.As per http://immigration-information.com/forums/showpost.php?p=18946&postcount=28 it's definitely better to switch to EAD.I used 4.5 years of H1B and switched to EAD.
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eb3India
03-08 06:45 PM
So I am assuming we have a way to track who they are. Why don't we tag them - on the colored button on the top right, saying something like "xxx doesnot want to contribute but has posted 239 messages" and let people decide whether to read or ignore his message.
I like the idea but we should tag members who are contributing
I like the idea but we should tag members who are contributing
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misanthrope
10-03 11:04 AM
So you made use of this opportunity and you are asking others not to do what the law allows them to?...
fyi.. I am an EB2 I candidate and fyi… I did not port but I will not stand in the way of people wanting to get out of the clutches of those employers who act cheap.
Please read back and point out where have I expressed my discontent for date porting?
Also, I would not stand in their way but I am trying to express the fact that they themselves chose to agree to the terms in the offer letter. Let me clear out that it stands for every candidate who wanted to apply in a higher priority group be it EB3 or EB2.
fyi.. I am an EB2 I candidate and fyi… I did not port but I will not stand in the way of people wanting to get out of the clutches of those employers who act cheap.
Please read back and point out where have I expressed my discontent for date porting?
Also, I would not stand in their way but I am trying to express the fact that they themselves chose to agree to the terms in the offer letter. Let me clear out that it stands for every candidate who wanted to apply in a higher priority group be it EB3 or EB2.
tonyHK12
04-20 06:47 PM
Congrats. Keep those boots hanged up :)
Like I said I have never attacked anybody first, unless I was provoked.
Like I said I have never attacked anybody first, unless I was provoked.
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gcgreen
08-13 07:39 PM
your title is misleading. where is the "plight" that you refer to?
Also, EB2 applies to jobs that require a Masters degree as well, not just PhD.
An MS can be completed in as little as 9 months (YES, 9 months, if you apply for MS in a school that follows quarter system and complete coursework but no thesis) for majors like Electrical and Computer Engineering. So what is the plight for folks who completed MS in say 9 months to 2 yrs, and how is it different from the plight of EB3 folks?
Yes, that is right, I said �plight of EB2-India�.
I am a passive observer of these forums. But some of the ridiculous notions floating around here have motivated me to vent. First and foremost, the law as written is highly favorable to people in EB3 categories, even from India. Here is how...
Take my example (and there are thousands like myself)....came to the US 8 years ago, spent 5 years working day and night to earn a PhD on a low (barely sustainable) stipend, got FIRST job saw decent money for the first time 6 years after I came.
Now, compare this to a person working an EB3-job for the last 8 years. Not only does this person do a real job that hopefully provides a respectable income but this person also has the option of moving to EB2 after 5 years of experience. So, at the end of the day in 2008; this person comes out ahead of me in terms of money, in terms of priority date (if ported) and most likely in terms of GC.
There are complaints all over the forum which have the stink of pretentiousness such as �oh..i am a poor EB3 waiting for n number of years� etc etc. What you guys seem to forget is that YOU are NOT an EB3, it is your JOB that is EB3. You have all the opportunities that were/are available to a person who sweated it out in the university system here to gain more qualifications and get an EB2 job. You CHOSE not to. The general discussion seems to center around cribbing about the US immigration system (Immigration by the way is a privilege defined by laws, not a birthright) and then blaming the EB2 crowd when they finally see the system implement the law as intended in the first place (horizontal spillover rules).
All these posts that refer to �my career is over because my gc is delayed� are nothing but a pathetic excuse. Law of supply and demand....if you have a skillset that is valuable, you will be fine with or without GC anywhere in the world. It takes a bunch of documents to remain here legally, all you need is a passport to go back if the system here seems so bad.
For all the attacks that are bound to happen, here is the fodder.....this is probably my first and last post, I haven�t contributed a dime to IV, will work here as long as I like it and if not, India is a great country and provides enough opportunities for any skillset !!
Also, EB2 applies to jobs that require a Masters degree as well, not just PhD.
An MS can be completed in as little as 9 months (YES, 9 months, if you apply for MS in a school that follows quarter system and complete coursework but no thesis) for majors like Electrical and Computer Engineering. So what is the plight for folks who completed MS in say 9 months to 2 yrs, and how is it different from the plight of EB3 folks?
Yes, that is right, I said �plight of EB2-India�.
I am a passive observer of these forums. But some of the ridiculous notions floating around here have motivated me to vent. First and foremost, the law as written is highly favorable to people in EB3 categories, even from India. Here is how...
Take my example (and there are thousands like myself)....came to the US 8 years ago, spent 5 years working day and night to earn a PhD on a low (barely sustainable) stipend, got FIRST job saw decent money for the first time 6 years after I came.
Now, compare this to a person working an EB3-job for the last 8 years. Not only does this person do a real job that hopefully provides a respectable income but this person also has the option of moving to EB2 after 5 years of experience. So, at the end of the day in 2008; this person comes out ahead of me in terms of money, in terms of priority date (if ported) and most likely in terms of GC.
There are complaints all over the forum which have the stink of pretentiousness such as �oh..i am a poor EB3 waiting for n number of years� etc etc. What you guys seem to forget is that YOU are NOT an EB3, it is your JOB that is EB3. You have all the opportunities that were/are available to a person who sweated it out in the university system here to gain more qualifications and get an EB2 job. You CHOSE not to. The general discussion seems to center around cribbing about the US immigration system (Immigration by the way is a privilege defined by laws, not a birthright) and then blaming the EB2 crowd when they finally see the system implement the law as intended in the first place (horizontal spillover rules).
All these posts that refer to �my career is over because my gc is delayed� are nothing but a pathetic excuse. Law of supply and demand....if you have a skillset that is valuable, you will be fine with or without GC anywhere in the world. It takes a bunch of documents to remain here legally, all you need is a passport to go back if the system here seems so bad.
For all the attacks that are bound to happen, here is the fodder.....this is probably my first and last post, I haven�t contributed a dime to IV, will work here as long as I like it and if not, India is a great country and provides enough opportunities for any skillset !!
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eastindia
01-22 10:15 AM
H1B descrimination - Fighting it legally ?
Are you kidding me. How can you fight it illegaly.:D:D:D
The question is who will fight it. Lawyer website are posting information. But none of them have filed a lawsuit if they really cared about this issue.
Are you kidding me. How can you fight it illegaly.:D:D:D
The question is who will fight it. Lawyer website are posting information. But none of them have filed a lawsuit if they really cared about this issue.
more...
willigetagc
08-14 09:33 AM
Yes, that is right, I said “plight of EB2-India”.
I am a passive observer of these forums. But some of the ridiculous notions floating around here have motivated me to vent. First and foremost, the law as written is highly favorable to people in EB3 categories, even from India. Here is how...
Take my example (and there are thousands like myself)....came to the US 8 years ago, spent 5 years working day and night to earn a PhD on a low (barely sustainable) stipend, got FIRST job saw decent money for the first time 6 years after I came.
Now, compare this to a person working an EB3-job for the last 8 years. Not only does this person do a real job that hopefully provides a respectable income but this person also has the option of moving to EB2 after 5 years of experience. So, at the end of the day in 2008; this person comes out ahead of me in terms of money, in terms of priority date (if ported) and most likely in terms of GC.
There are complaints all over the forum which have the stink of pretentiousness such as “oh..i am a poor EB3 waiting for n number of years” etc etc. What you guys seem to forget is that YOU are NOT an EB3, it is your JOB that is EB3. You have all the opportunities that were/are available to a person who sweated it out in the university system here to gain more qualifications and get an EB2 job. You CHOSE not to. The general discussion seems to center around cribbing about the US immigration system (Immigration by the way is a privilege defined by laws, not a birthright) and then blaming the EB2 crowd when they finally see the system implement the law as intended in the first place (horizontal spillover rules).
All these posts that refer to “my career is over because my gc is delayed” are nothing but a pathetic excuse. Law of supply and demand....if you have a skillset that is valuable, you will be fine with or without GC anywhere in the world. It takes a bunch of documents to remain here legally, all you need is a passport to go back if the system here seems so bad.
For all the attacks that are bound to happen, here is the fodder.....this is probably my first and last post, I haven’t contributed a dime to IV, will work here as long as I like it and if not, India is a great country and provides enough opportunities for any skillset !!
most ridiculous argument and surprising because it is coming from a Phd. Surely, you must have defended your doctoral thesis, or did'nt you have one ? :p
The people who go for Phds should know that they are sacrificing short-term future cash flows in exchange for a far superior long-term cash flows. The others "EB3" go for a more milder but increasing series of future cash flows.
To each his own!!! But when people say that "my career is over because my gc is delayed" UNDERSTAND that they are venting their frustration. It does not mean that their career is really over.
And, like you, they will also work here as long as they like it and if not, go back...
I am a passive observer of these forums. But some of the ridiculous notions floating around here have motivated me to vent. First and foremost, the law as written is highly favorable to people in EB3 categories, even from India. Here is how...
Take my example (and there are thousands like myself)....came to the US 8 years ago, spent 5 years working day and night to earn a PhD on a low (barely sustainable) stipend, got FIRST job saw decent money for the first time 6 years after I came.
Now, compare this to a person working an EB3-job for the last 8 years. Not only does this person do a real job that hopefully provides a respectable income but this person also has the option of moving to EB2 after 5 years of experience. So, at the end of the day in 2008; this person comes out ahead of me in terms of money, in terms of priority date (if ported) and most likely in terms of GC.
There are complaints all over the forum which have the stink of pretentiousness such as “oh..i am a poor EB3 waiting for n number of years” etc etc. What you guys seem to forget is that YOU are NOT an EB3, it is your JOB that is EB3. You have all the opportunities that were/are available to a person who sweated it out in the university system here to gain more qualifications and get an EB2 job. You CHOSE not to. The general discussion seems to center around cribbing about the US immigration system (Immigration by the way is a privilege defined by laws, not a birthright) and then blaming the EB2 crowd when they finally see the system implement the law as intended in the first place (horizontal spillover rules).
All these posts that refer to “my career is over because my gc is delayed” are nothing but a pathetic excuse. Law of supply and demand....if you have a skillset that is valuable, you will be fine with or without GC anywhere in the world. It takes a bunch of documents to remain here legally, all you need is a passport to go back if the system here seems so bad.
For all the attacks that are bound to happen, here is the fodder.....this is probably my first and last post, I haven’t contributed a dime to IV, will work here as long as I like it and if not, India is a great country and provides enough opportunities for any skillset !!
most ridiculous argument and surprising because it is coming from a Phd. Surely, you must have defended your doctoral thesis, or did'nt you have one ? :p
The people who go for Phds should know that they are sacrificing short-term future cash flows in exchange for a far superior long-term cash flows. The others "EB3" go for a more milder but increasing series of future cash flows.
To each his own!!! But when people say that "my career is over because my gc is delayed" UNDERSTAND that they are venting their frustration. It does not mean that their career is really over.
And, like you, they will also work here as long as they like it and if not, go back...
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rb_248
04-27 11:16 PM
Back in the days there was a campaign launched by Govt of India to plant more trees.....the slogan was "plant one tree for every house". A wise guy was prompt to ask the govt... "give me a house, I will plant a tree". Likewise, give me the GC, I will definitely follow the rules.
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sss9i
07-16 11:10 AM
Done
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mhathi
09-17 10:35 AM
Not started yet.. People slowly trickling in... no body is talking
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Bradman
11-09 10:06 AM
What you think and suggest is your problem. I know what all i had go through to be where I am today. I did a receive a call on either occasion from the Presidents office. As a matter of fact when I wrote to the FL and the Senators office then too I received calls.
Keep you subject very precise and on the top of envelop remember to mention "Immigration Assistance". Please use ordinary mail 41 cents stamp and wait and watch.
All the best !!!!
Forgot to mention on all the instance I had sent hand written personal letters just stating traumatic situation which I am going through. Also remember this is a request which we are asking for and there is no moral obligation on their part to expedite.
Cheers !!!
Bradman
Keep you subject very precise and on the top of envelop remember to mention "Immigration Assistance". Please use ordinary mail 41 cents stamp and wait and watch.
All the best !!!!
Forgot to mention on all the instance I had sent hand written personal letters just stating traumatic situation which I am going through. Also remember this is a request which we are asking for and there is no moral obligation on their part to expedite.
Cheers !!!
Bradman
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arindamb
03-13 04:41 PM
Looks like they have moved the link from the website ? I hope things will not change.
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arnab221
04-26 03:56 AM
Outsourcing cannot be stopped with these nonsense bills . Outsourcing can only be stopped when the US market relizes that it is highly overpriced for the same job that is doine abroad for a far lesser price and adjusts accordingly . Every work has a value associated to it and the price needs to be paid according to the value of the work and not the place it is done ( India or the US )
Example
*******
Lets take a example of a barber. The barber in India charges about Rs 30 ( 45 Cents ) whereas for the same task a barber in US charges about $ 15 ( Rs750 ) . Now the question is , is the barber in the US more skilled than the barber in India , or the Barber in US doing a job if much more value than the barber in India . The reason that the barber is charging more is simply because of the virtue of the fact that he is in the USA and nothig else .
In the same way the Software Consultants ( Indian or Americans ) who are getting paid more in the USA , pleas remember that the reason for the extra salkary is not because we are more skilled or do better value work . It is simply because of the virtue of being located in the USA and nothing else .
GM Ford and Chrysler
*******************
Now instead of frowing and looking down upon the people who do the same value work for less , we need to be appreciative of their competative spirit . They work hard , so the same work , get paid less and compete with us . Whats not to appreciate of that ? Is this not the way the American dream is made . These senators instead if introducing a price correction in the US to bring down the rate of work in US are trying protectionism tactics to prevent people from selling the same work at alower rate . The result will be what hapenned to GM and Ford and Chrysler .These contractors that these companies negotiated with their staff has resulted in their downfall . GM staff drinks beer outside a closed plant and still the UAW contract entiles them to $94.00 per hour . GM and ford though that American consumers will protect them from Honda and Toyota which had much cheaper workes ( on flexible rates ) and made much better cars . The Durbin Grassley amendment will result in the same fate to other american compoanies that happenned to GM and Ford .
Example
*******
Lets take a example of a barber. The barber in India charges about Rs 30 ( 45 Cents ) whereas for the same task a barber in US charges about $ 15 ( Rs750 ) . Now the question is , is the barber in the US more skilled than the barber in India , or the Barber in US doing a job if much more value than the barber in India . The reason that the barber is charging more is simply because of the virtue of the fact that he is in the USA and nothig else .
In the same way the Software Consultants ( Indian or Americans ) who are getting paid more in the USA , pleas remember that the reason for the extra salkary is not because we are more skilled or do better value work . It is simply because of the virtue of being located in the USA and nothing else .
GM Ford and Chrysler
*******************
Now instead of frowing and looking down upon the people who do the same value work for less , we need to be appreciative of their competative spirit . They work hard , so the same work , get paid less and compete with us . Whats not to appreciate of that ? Is this not the way the American dream is made . These senators instead if introducing a price correction in the US to bring down the rate of work in US are trying protectionism tactics to prevent people from selling the same work at alower rate . The result will be what hapenned to GM and Ford and Chrysler .These contractors that these companies negotiated with their staff has resulted in their downfall . GM staff drinks beer outside a closed plant and still the UAW contract entiles them to $94.00 per hour . GM and ford though that American consumers will protect them from Honda and Toyota which had much cheaper workes ( on flexible rates ) and made much better cars . The Durbin Grassley amendment will result in the same fate to other american compoanies that happenned to GM and Ford .
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chanduv23
07-19 10:24 AM
We would be happy to know from core that your expenses have been reimbursed. I am sure, Jwalant, Himanshu, Prsatik etc.. all have contributed apart from Aman.
Offcourse the time spent cannot be reimbursed, but definitely money can. Its wrong on part that one has to shed so much money.
Offcourse the time spent cannot be reimbursed, but definitely money can. Its wrong on part that one has to shed so much money.
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ItIsNotFunny
03-13 12:57 PM
That is correct, 9 months and then I will return to my country for good.
I am waiting for the day when we get the GC , we will tear it into pieces and throw in front of consulate.
Cheers
Why are you consuming and wasting couple of visa numbers. Pull back your application and I will be couple of hours early getting it.
GC should be received by people who need it desparately not to people like you who just want to get it for personal satisfaction and has no value for it.
I am waiting for the day when we get the GC , we will tear it into pieces and throw in front of consulate.
Cheers
Why are you consuming and wasting couple of visa numbers. Pull back your application and I will be couple of hours early getting it.
GC should be received by people who need it desparately not to people like you who just want to get it for personal satisfaction and has no value for it.
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SGP
04-02 05:22 PM
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$GOOD EVENING GC$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Deadline = April 30th, 2011
Goal = 5000 votes on survey (see I-485 filing w/o current PD thread) and momentum to continue with this campaign.The survey is a platform to gather and push for launching action items. Based on response by 04/30/2011 - IV will decide whether to even proceed with initiative or not.
Actions - 1) Vote on survey.
2)Email ivcoordinator@gmail.com with PD, ph#,email & subject "I485 filing impacted�,
3)Print/Circulate Fliers and spread FB, wiki link (see "support thread")
Dear IV Members,
If you believe that your success depends on your immigration process - whether it's the ability to file I-485 earlier or to get green-card and citizenship sooner or whether it's the ability of your spouse to work - then you have to believe that your success somehow depends on the success of Immigration voice and these 170 volunteers in DC next week.
As you may know, we are just one more week away from hosting Advocacy day in Washington DC where about 170 members of Immigration Voice will conduct nearly 250 meetings with offices of Senators and Congressmen. Such events cost money. If we have enough contributions, we can spend as per our budget of nearly $ 50,000. If not, we will have to cut back on the event spending and reduce the magnitude and size of the event.
If you are not coming to DC next week, please do your part and contribute funds to Immigration Voice. It not only finances the event properly, it instills pride and confidence in the members who will be there in DC that there are thousands of willing supporters behind them who could not be there physically but are 100% with them in their determination and resolve.
For background click here -> Announcement about April 2011 Advocacy Days (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1901186-action-item-advocacy-days-in-washington-dc-in-april-2011-a.html#post2301599)
Contribute to Advocacy Event on the Capitol Hill (http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=26&Itemid=44#onetimepaypal) (All one-time contributions will go towards organizing the Advocacy Days event)
Deadline = April 30th, 2011
Goal = 5000 votes on survey (see I-485 filing w/o current PD thread) and momentum to continue with this campaign.The survey is a platform to gather and push for launching action items. Based on response by 04/30/2011 - IV will decide whether to even proceed with initiative or not.
Actions - 1) Vote on survey.
2)Email ivcoordinator@gmail.com with PD, ph#,email & subject "I485 filing impacted�,
3)Print/Circulate Fliers and spread FB, wiki link (see "support thread")
Dear IV Members,
If you believe that your success depends on your immigration process - whether it's the ability to file I-485 earlier or to get green-card and citizenship sooner or whether it's the ability of your spouse to work - then you have to believe that your success somehow depends on the success of Immigration voice and these 170 volunteers in DC next week.
As you may know, we are just one more week away from hosting Advocacy day in Washington DC where about 170 members of Immigration Voice will conduct nearly 250 meetings with offices of Senators and Congressmen. Such events cost money. If we have enough contributions, we can spend as per our budget of nearly $ 50,000. If not, we will have to cut back on the event spending and reduce the magnitude and size of the event.
If you are not coming to DC next week, please do your part and contribute funds to Immigration Voice. It not only finances the event properly, it instills pride and confidence in the members who will be there in DC that there are thousands of willing supporters behind them who could not be there physically but are 100% with them in their determination and resolve.
For background click here -> Announcement about April 2011 Advocacy Days (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1901186-action-item-advocacy-days-in-washington-dc-in-april-2011-a.html#post2301599)
Contribute to Advocacy Event on the Capitol Hill (http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=26&Itemid=44#onetimepaypal) (All one-time contributions will go towards organizing the Advocacy Days event)
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thakurrajiv
07-30 12:02 PM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
pmb76
07-17 02:18 AM
Folks,
We have around 764 signatures on the petition. There are around 13,000 active members on IV. C'mon don't tell me that the rest 12000 of you love Lou Dobbs. Please sign, spread the word, tell your friends. You are doing this for you and not for anybody else.
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/loudobbs
We have around 764 signatures on the petition. There are around 13,000 active members on IV. C'mon don't tell me that the rest 12000 of you love Lou Dobbs. Please sign, spread the word, tell your friends. You are doing this for you and not for anybody else.
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/loudobbs
oliTwist
01-15 01:32 PM
Folks,
There are many discussions on immigration (some in favor and some totally misrepresenting the legal immigration).Mind you many of the ordinary citizens are voting on these posts, which indicate the popularity. Obviously this is one way of increasing the popularity of posts highlighting our case (ala Digg)
Only a few of the immigration posts are addressing our pain points. One eg is something like: Please help the Immigration System
Please vote for them and champion the advantages for all by commenting and voting.
I believe at the moment this is achievable by all. Please act!
There are many discussions on immigration (some in favor and some totally misrepresenting the legal immigration).Mind you many of the ordinary citizens are voting on these posts, which indicate the popularity. Obviously this is one way of increasing the popularity of posts highlighting our case (ala Digg)
Only a few of the immigration posts are addressing our pain points. One eg is something like: Please help the Immigration System
Please vote for them and champion the advantages for all by commenting and voting.
I believe at the moment this is achievable by all. Please act!
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